In the week of June 23-27, after the skyrocketing gold and silver, can the double geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and Iraq boost demand again? Is there any economic data such as the initial value of manufacturing PMI in June, US, UK and France GDP, US and UK consumer confidence, and whether it is bullish? Fed Proso / Dudley / Lake / Williams have spoken, have you once again stimulated the Fed "falling pigeons" Yu Wei? The Ukrainian ceasefire agreement ushered in the last day on Friday, June 27. The riots in Iraq continued and the political situation faced a threat of exchange of blood. Does the risk aversion continue to dominate the market? ... How does the gold market interpret?
Monday event: ECB Vice President Constanta Speaks (15:00), European Central Bank Mercedes (20:00)
Monday keyword: Digest weekend news, global manufacturing PMI initial value in June, ECB comments
On Monday (June 23), the weekend news will be digested, especially in the opening situation. The progress of the weekend geopolitical crisis is worthy of attention. The data on Monday was also very much concerned. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in China, Japan, France, France and Europe in June and the US existing home sales in May were the focus. Improvements in data will increase the market's embarrassment for the global economic outlook. European Central Bank Constance and Mersch's speech on the currency outlook will continue to be concerned. Recently, European bank officials have repeatedly said that if it is necessary to deal with deflation risks with QE, it is not considered necessary.
Tuesday event: On the first day of the Eurobond Investor Conference, Canadian Finance Minister Oliver delivered a keynote speech; Fed Proso's speech (20:05); European Central Bank Cole speech (21:50); Federal Reserve Dudley speech (Wednesday morning 02 :00)
Tuesday keyword: German IFO boom index, US consumer confidence and two major housing data, Fed Prosso and Dudley speech
Tuesday (June 24) data is lower than Monday, but the German IFO sentiment index, US consumer confidence and the two major housing data will still attract market attention. The two senior officials of the Federal Reserve, Prosso and Dudley, will also be concerned about the economic and monetary policy stance, but after the Fedâ€™s recent resolution last week, if there is no major change in the old tune, it will be ignored by the market; Proso hawks have voting rights, Dudley Dove and have the right to vote. European Central Bank Cole will also speak, if it is more inclined to launch QE will be big news. The Eurobond investor conference was held, but in the case of a weakening European debt crisis, the degree of attention may be limited.
Wednesday event: Fed Williams speech (06:30), Australian Federal Reserve Assistant Chairman Lowe speaks (11:00), Eurobond Investor Conference second day
Wednesday Keywords: US GDP, US durable goods orders, German Gfk consumer confidence / retail, Fed Williams speech
Wednesday (June 25) data is not large, but the US GDP and durable goods orders, Germany Gfk consumer confidence data is bound to be closely watched by the market big data, the market is expected to be the first quarter of the United States real GDP annual rate by The decline of 1.0% was significantly revised down to 1.6%. Therefore, before the data is released, the US dollar may have a wave of pressure to fall and benefit non-US assets, but if the result is not as bad as expected, the US dollar will regain some of the decline; given the first quarter data Affected by the harsh winter, if the data is more moderate, the market will have a short-term impact. US May durable goods orders are expected to slow down significantly, but if the unexpected fall will put pressure on the dollar to support non-US assets. The Fed Williams speech may be less focused, because he has no voting rights, he is a centrist. But if its position changes, it is a valuable market signal.
Germany's July Gfk Consumer Confidence Index is a very important leading indicator of the German economy, so it is very concerned by the market. It is expected to maintain stability of 8.5. If the result is different from the expected, it will cause obvious market fluctuations. German retail data will be released on the 25th to the 30th, and if the data is improved on schedule, it is an important signal that the German economy is performing well.
Thursday event: Bank of England FPC semi-annual financial stability assessment report, President Carney held a press conference (17:30); Federal Reserve Lake speech (20:30)
Thursday Keywords: US initial jobless claims / personal income / expenditure / core PCE prices, UK housing prices, the Bank of England semi-annual financial stability report, the Federal Reserve Bank speech
On Thursday (June 26), the market focus is on the United Kingdom and the United States. The market performance of Nationwide in the Asian market in June is worthy of attention, as the Bank of England recently warned of real estate bubble risks; the Bank of England semi-annual financial stability report may also reveal the Bank of England plus Interest prospects.
The three major US data at the beginning of New York's initial period - initial jobless claims / personal income / expenditure / core PCE prices are a window into the US economy and the Fed's policy. If the unanimous weakness will aggravate the "aftershocks" of the Fed's resolution "falling pigeons" Power, if consistently strong, will push the dollar and pressure is not beautiful. The attention of the Fed's speech may also be limited. Lake has no voting rights and is a hawkish one. However, if his position is a dove, it may also increase the power of the "aftershock" of the Fed's resolution of "falling pigeons".
Friday event: no
Friday keyword: the last day of the Ukrainian ceasefire agreement, position adjustment, data concentration bombing [English and French GDP, Japan / Germany CPI, Euro (1.3605, -0.0008, -0.06%) economic climate, British and American consumer confidence]
On Friday (June 27), investors are expected to actively adjust their positions in preparation for weekend uncertainty, especially in the eastern part of Ukraine for a week (June 20-27). The ceasefire agreement ushers in the last day, how the geopolitical crisis will evolve. Tracing the investor's nerves. The intraday data was again concentrated in bombing, including the final value of the first quarter of the UK and France, the consumer confidence data of the UK and the US in June, the economic climate in the euro zone in June, and the German CPI in June/Japan. Among them, UK GDP, Eurozone prosperity index and US consumer confidence data are the top priorities. If the European and British data is brilliant and the US data is weak, it will boost non-US pressure on the US dollar; if the US data is strong rather than the US data is weak, the US dollar may get support, but it may not be a boost. This depends on the progress of the technical situation of the US dollar under the influence of the progress of the geopolitical situation on both sides of Ukraine and Iraq.
The German and Japanese CPI data have certain guiding significance for their respective central bank policies. However, the European Central Bank has recently launched a rate cut measure to withstand deflation risks, and it is expected that it will not act again in the next few months. The Bank of Japan has been quite satisfied with the performance of CPI. In particular, after the start of the upward adjustment of the sales tax in April, the price will be boosted, so the CPI will not raise the market expectation of changing the central bank's position.
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