Non-ferrous metal
Copper: No fear of the dollar rebound, manufacturing exceeded expectations and led the rebound in copper prices
Overall, China's manufacturing industry continued to improve in September, the expansion rate of SMEs slowed slightly, and the economic performance in the third quarter was stable. However, the upward pressure on raw material costs will not help the downstream enterprises to improve their profits, which will put pressure on the economic growth in the later period. . At the micro level, post-holiday procurement slowed down downstream, and domestic explicit stocks accumulated again; the import price was slowly repaired, which was beneficial to the inventory growth of the bonded area. Possible changes in the next week: The US dollar index is adjusted back under the pressure of non-agricultural employment data, but it still does not change the medium-term rebound. Later, it may put some pressure on copper prices. Technical graphics, the MACD trend indicator on the daily chart of the copper formed a golden cross, and the short-term oversold rebound continued to be repaired, but the weekly chart is still overbought, and the upper resistance moved up to $6,760. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate widely in the next week, with an expected operating range of 50,500-53,000 yuan/ton.
Operation strategy: After the holiday, the spot tension pattern will gradually ease, the spot premium will probably fall back, and the Shanghai copper's 11-December contract basis may re-expand in the positive direction. Under the premise that the term structure remains positive, it will continue to sell for November. Buy the reverse operation in December.
Aluminum: aluminum price support is strong, low level can still be shorter
Last week, alumina prices continued to rise, and this week is still expected to be dominated by strength, which continues to increase for aluminum costs and short-term emotional support for aluminum prices. However, the high level of domestic aluminum inventories continued to rebound slightly, and the long-awaited inventory inflection point has not yet appeared. This week, we continue to pay attention to inventory dynamics. On the whole, the price of electrolytic aluminum continues to be supported by rising raw material costs and heating seasons, and is still dominated by strong shocks. The main risk is still from the macro-faceted pessimism about the economy, but it eased last Friday. In the medium and long term, we continue to maintain a more volatile view. Transportation problems in the fourth quarter and possible decline in inventory will support aluminum prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for a while and wait for the opportunity to try more in the vicinity of Wanliu.
Zinc: The supply side boosts the sustained zinc price will maintain a high position
The US dollar index has steadily increased in recent days, but its impact on the colored sector is limited. The strong support for the basic zinc price is still obvious. At present, the contradiction in the supply of zinc spot market is prominent, and the short-term domestic and international zinc ingot inventory situation does not change. Before the long holiday, the domestic zinc spot premium has narrowed, but the LME zinc premium (0-3) premium is very strong. During the long holiday period, the domestic zinc ingot inventory will rebound slightly, but the trend will not change again in the later period. In addition, the supply of zinc mines has once again tightened. It is expected that the short-term zinc price will continue to be high and volatile.
Risk factors: The adjustment of domestic real estate regulation and control, coupled with environmental protection efforts exceeding expectations, adversely affected the downstream consumption of zinc, resulting in a significant weakening of zinc consumption.
Operation strategy: Zinc trend operation is mainly based on short-term and multi-operation, and arbitrage Shanghai Zinc buys near-month sales and long-term inter-temporal arbitrage.
Lead: low inventory situation will continue to ferment short-term lead price will continue strong pattern
Short-term domestic lead low inventory, especially the low warehouse receipts inventory situation will continue to ferment, coupled with the recent tightening of lead supply, so the supply side support is strong. It is expected that the short-term lead price pattern will continue to strengthen.
Risk factors: The domestic macro economy was weaker than expected, and downstream lead consumption slowed down noticeably.
Operation strategy: Shanghai lead more than 1711 single holding, while Shanghai lead buys near-month selling long-term intertemporal arbitrage holding.
Nickel: long and cautious, nickel is the main shock
On the whole, the supply side still supports nickel prices stably. Indonesia's nickel-iron imports will also decrease as scheduled. Demand is weaker. Imported stainless steel may also cause further pressure. However, steel mills are still profitable and demand is weak. Affected by the decline in nickel prices. At present, the market is widening and fluctuating. It is more likely to find the equilibrium position of the industrial chain. In the current trend, the current level of decline requires a long-term stable mood. It is recommended to wait and see, and wait for the callback to shrink and then participate in the market. Energy and Chemical
Crude oil: demand in the third quarter was higher than expected, and seasonal effects in the fourth quarter
In the distant month, the marginal cost is anchored. Under the recent changes in inventory, the medium-term oil price may maintain a volatile pattern, and the seasonal impact will be more prominent. In the third quarter, global demand was higher than expected, oil stocks were quickly de-converted; unilateral prices fluctuated upwards, and finished product cracks rose rapidly. In the fourth quarter, the production capacity of crude oil has gradually returned, and the refinery has ushered in the peak of maintenance; the supply increase is greater than the demand, and the speed of de-stocking will slow down. The unilateral pressure increases and the monthly difference follows a single side. Short-term cracks or repair demand; driven by high profits, global refineries are already at a relatively high level, and new refining capacity is limited. If the demand maintains a good growth rate, the finished product may maintain a relatively high level in the middle of the crack.
Last week, the focus on cross-regional spreads and the expansion of US oil exports reached a new high. The Saudi King visited Putin and promised to work together to stabilize the oil market. This week, we are concerned about the impact of tropical storm Nate on US oil prices. Nate has a greater impact on the production of crude oil in the Bay Area and the consumption of refined oil on the East Coast, and has less impact on the start of the refinery; or relatively crude oil, bad luck gasoline.
Operating strategy: ULSD 1712- WTI 1712 Buy and hold (September 20 admission, point 24.50); ​​RBOB1712-WTI1712 sell and hold (October 6 admission, point 17.00)
Asphalt: Environmental protection lags demand in the third quarter, and policy impact in the fourth quarter
Before the holiday, the asphalt first rose and then fell, and the overall situation remained in a narrow range. In August, supply increased, and environmental protection lags behind demand. In September, the northeast and northwest roads entered the rush period, and the overall demand was released. The demand in East China and South China was relatively weak, and the pressure on refinery stocks was relatively high. The fourth quarter focused on the follow-up impact of the policy. The fourth round of inspections has been completed for the last round of the year, and the large-scale inspections have ended. The follow-up transfer will continue until next March when the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei “2+26†urban air pollution prevention and control will mainly affect Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei and Henan. province. In the fourth quarter, the demand release in Shandong region was suppressed to a certain extent, and there is still a demand for work in the country as a whole. Under the continuation of demand, the upward momentum in the fourth quarter still exists, but it is necessary to pay attention to the starting rhythm.
Operation strategy: wait and see
Rubber: Hujiao is expected to stabilize after the fall
After mid-September, Hujiao continued to fall for three weeks, and the drop point was close to 5,000 yuan/ton compared with the highest point. After the Hujiao Festival, the price may slow down, the price may stabilize, and there may even be a small rebound. Hujiao's fluctuation range is expected to be around 13,500 yuan / ton.
PTA : oil price linkage, PTA short-term trend is weak
Before the National Day, the price of crude oil fell back, which brought a large pressure on the PTA, which was weak in the upward trend. At the same time, the risk aversion of funds before the long holiday was superimposed, and the trend of the chemical products fell. In October, the risk of short-selling PTA fundamentals increased, mainly due to supply, and new capacity was expected to release pressure on the market. If the latter capacity increases and the demand does not increase significantly, supply and demand may enter a loose pattern, and the upside of the PTA trend will be further compressed.
PVC : Affected by the decline of chemical products before the holiday, PVC test 6500 support
Before the National Day, the trend of PVC was dragged down by the collective weakness of the energy-producing sector, and it fell sharply. It is expected that the risk aversion of funds will dominate the decline. The basic surface of PVC has not been completely emptied. Just after entering October, the situation of PVC supply and demand will face some adjustments, and the tight supply and demand pattern in China is slightly weakened. Short-term PVC weak shocks, when the supply and demand are slightly weaker, the high price of PVC is repaired in the early stage. It is expected that PVC prices will fall back to the cost line and will be supported. Continue to pay attention to the support performance near the 6500 line.
Methanol: supply and demand are relieved, the basis is falling, and the price range is oscillating
After entering October, the supply and demand of inland methanol gradually turned loose. In the first half of the year, Hualu Hengsheng 600426 in Shandong Province, the new plant was put into operation, the MTO equipment was repaired, and the supply and demand were reversed. The Shanxi area was affected by environmental inspections, and the supply was slightly reduced. In the middle and late tenth, the maintenance facilities in the northwest region resumed production and supply resumed. Therefore, it is expected that the higher methanol spot basis in the inland areas will gradually narrow. The current methanol futures price is determined by the spot price of the lowest East China region after the exchange has been adjusted for the premium, and will not be subject to downward pressure, but the potential upside is reduced.
In the coastal areas, although the price of PP is lower, the price of MTO/MTP devices is still better due to the good performance of products such as EVA, ethylene glycol and ethylene oxide. Therefore, the demand for methanol in olefins is expected to remain high; The traditional downstream operating rates of dimethyl ether and acetic acid are steady and rising, and the performance is stable. In summary, the overall supply of methanol increased after October, but the coastal demand is stable, and the expected price is expected to fluctuate in a range.
LLDPE : It is expected that supply and demand will increase in October, and the price pressure will be obvious after the peak season.
Driven by the demand for long-term stocking, the polyethylene inventories fell sharply and the peak season of consumption was reflected. In the context of high-yield and high-volume imports from August to September, domestic stocks have not been effectively accumulated. Although they have been affected by the demand for festive stocking, they have also reflected from the side that there is no obvious surplus. After entering October, with the re-opening of the equipment maintenance of Shenhua Ningmei and Baotou Shenhua, the supply level will increase further, and the downstream consumption will also have a seasonal increase, so it is expected to show a slight surplus, but in the peak season of consumption. Or the performance is not very obvious. After December, the production of agricultural film is reduced. If polyethylene still maintains the current operating rate, the supply surplus is large, and there is obvious pressure on the price.
PP : supply and demand maintain a weak balance, low inventory is not suitable for short
In the past September, domestic PP equipment has been overhauled and the affected output is also large. According to estimates, domestic PP production in September was 1.64 million tons, which was significantly lower than the 1.75 million tons (estimated value) in August and 1.81 million tons in July. Compared with the same period last year, the increase was limited. After entering October, Hebei Haiwei (300,000 tons/year), Fujian United (300,000 tons/year), Datang Duolun (460,000 tons/year), Baotou Shenhua (300,000 tons/year), Zhongtian Hechuang (350,000 tons/year of ring pipe), Shijiazhuang Refinery (200,000 tons/year) and Yuntianhua 600096, a total of 2.05 million tons/year of PP equipment, etc., are planned to resume production or put into production. The maintenance plan is only Pucheng Clean Energy (400,000 tons/year), Lianhe New Materials (200,000 tons/year) and Shanghai Petrochemical 600688, and shares (200,000 tons/year) totaling 800,000 tons/year. obvious.
Under the influence of long-term stocking demand, domestic PP stocks showed a significant decline in late September, a year-on-year low, indicating that due to the impact of more maintenance, the supply and demand of PP in September was not loose, and the current price fell. The impact of long-term supply expectations and market competition is relatively sufficient. After October, the downstream operating rate will continue to have a seasonal increase, coupled with the demand for the return of imported imports, the market is expected to digest some of the supply increase, maintain a weak balance between supply and demand, and the price is slightly weaker in the range. However, due to the low inventory level, once there is a delay in the resumption of production, unexpected parking of the device or downstream demand is concentrated in the short term, the rebound may be triggered at any time. Black building materials
Rebar: Production is limited, and steel prices fluctuate after the holiday
Beginning in October, Anyang and Anyang will start production in advance, and social stocks will drop sharply. During the holiday period, Tangshan billets will increase by 130 yuan/ton, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate after the holiday.
Operation strategy: If the thread 1801 contract is stable at 3700, it will be allowed to enter the market in the short term.
Iron ore: follow the steel price to stabilize
The fundamentals have not seen further deterioration. After the absolute adjustment of the absolute price of iron ore, the market's bearish expectations for the distant moon are obviously weakened, and it is expected to stabilize with the steel price.
Operation strategy: iron ore 1801 contract empty order 450-460 interval take profit.
Coke: Steel companies actively reduce prices, but there is still resistance in the spot
Steel mills began to slow down procurement, in order to stabilize inventory, and began to actively price 50 yuan / ton, Jiao enterprises accepted the price reduction. The decline is mainly due to the concerns of coking enterprises on the decline of demand, but it should not be ignored that the coke enterprises are more limited than the steel enterprises in advance, and the impact of the environmental coke supply side is higher than the structural problems of the demand side. There is still a large resistance to the spot.
Operation strategy: 01 contract falls back to the idea, but has been deeply attached to the water to control the risk.
Coking coal: maintaining a weak pattern, but the price has reached a low level
Coke oven environmental protection and limited production were cashed in advance. Under the influence of demand concerns in the fourth quarter and environmental restrictions on coal port, the price of imported coking coal fell first. Generally speaking, the limited production of seasonally mixed demand for coking coal will remain weak, but the price has been deeply subsidized to control the risk.
Operation strategy: JM01 multi-coal ratio is clearing the wait-and-see attitude.
Thermal coal: Coal enterprises collectively cut down the price of water and coal, and the stable price is the main keynote in the near future.
On the 28th, Shenhua lowered the coal price of the northern port launching market by RMB 10/ton. Subsequently, China Coal, Yitai and other major coal enterprises in the country have followed the reduction of 10 yuan / ton. There is not much stock available for sale in major coal companies. The price cut is mainly due to the coal enterprises' stance indicating stable prices and the response to the Development and Reform Commission's Notice on Doing a Good Job in Coal and Electricity Transportation. The stable coal price will be the main tone before and after the 19th National Congress, and the spot price is difficult to have large fluctuations. However, in the context of low stocks in the downstream, the Daqin line maintenance and winter storage are superimposed, and the spot price is still dominated.
Operation strategy: 01 contract is more than operation, pay attention to control risk. Agricultural products
Beans: stocking over the stack of US beans, the market is under pressure
Internationally, the US quarter grain stocks will be released on September 29, which is expected to be bearish. The USDA September supply and demand report raised the yield to 49.9, and the estimated output reached a record high. The US soybean production increase pattern was basically determined, and the market was harvested at a low point. However, the US soybean crush data exceeded expectations and supported the US soybean price. In the long run, the possibility of La Nina increased, or the South American soybean production was reduced, thus alleviating the supply pressure of soybeans. Technically, the US soybeans rebounded in the near future and are expected to return to the range.
Domestically, the National Day stocking is coming to an end and the soybean meal is back in the interval. Soybean meal stocks are still at a high level, supply pressure is prominent; the ability of the sows to continue to fall, the production capacity of the hog industry under the pressure of environmental protection is greater, and the demand for soybean meal is limited. In general, soybean meal is oversupply. Technically, the cardamom is finished with the US beans.
Operation strategy: futures: wait and see; arbitrage: long Y1801/M1801
Palm oil: the overall decline in oil and fat concerns MPOB report announced
In the international market, palm oil, horse brown's September production or the month-on-month decline, export demand is still strong, Lido palm oil price, concerned about the MPOB report announced; soybean oil, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended to reduce biodiesel in the domestic fuel supply The blending quantity and the pressure on the harvest of the US soybeans have caused the US soybean oil to continue to drop, dragging down domestic oil prices. In summary, it is expected that the fats will continue to fluctuate in the near future, and the production cycle will be reduced in October, and the long-term fats and oils will be bullish.
In the domestic market, upstream supply, soybean oil and palm oil stocks increased, the vegetable oil stocks decreased, and the short-term supply of oil was sufficient. Downstream consumption, stocking before the end of the day, the overall turnover of oil and fat was weak. In summary, the pre-holiday funds outflow, oil and fat market weakened, but palm oil production and inventory reconstruction are not as expected, superimposed export data to form a good support, it is expected that the recent oil price shocks, wait and see is appropriate, wait for the market to stabilize and then more than single .
Operation strategy: Trend: wait and see, pay close attention to the support price performance. If effective support is formed, it is recommended to try more.
Rapeseed: Pay attention to the changes in the surrounding weather, and the price of the vegetable meal may continue to fluctuate.
In terms of futures, last week's main contract was down, and the weekly K line closed. The main contract rose or decreased by -3.29%. The weekly trading volume was basically flat and the positions were down. The technical focus was on the low support effectiveness before the main contract. In terms of spot, Canada's rapeseed is expected to decline in production, but with the listing of new season rapeseed, Canadian rapeseed commercial stocks increase rapidly, domestic imported rapeseed arrivals are small, and it is expected that domestic coastal oilseed rapeseed and vegetable stocks will be in stock recently. The quantity is maintained at a low level, but the domestic supply of vegetable oysters will not be interrupted recently; in terms of demand, the fourth quarter is the off-season of aquaculture, and the price of freshwater fish is higher this year. The scale of aquaculture is less than expected. Sexual decline. In terms of alternatives, the later US soybean exports, South American weather and South American bean cultivation will become the focus of the market, and domestic soybean meal will still have a greater impact on the rapeseed meal. In summary, the recent contradiction between supply and demand of rapeseed is not prominent, and it is expected that the futures price will remain volatile.
Operational strategy: trend: wait and see; arbitrage: wait and see
White sugar: Focus on September sales data, expected to perform in general
During the 11th holiday period, the outer plate of raw sugar maintained a low volatility. Before the holiday, the country’s second dumping was over, and the post-holiday sales data was expected. The performance is expected to be average; it is expected that there will be a large increase in the external market during the medium term; In the case of a sharp drop in imports, the overall sales performance of the sugar factory is average; after the auction in Guangxi and the State Reserve, there may be no shortage of sugar in the latter part of the season; after the tariff increase, the import of sugar in the later period will drop significantly, and the import cost will rise sharply. Sugar has formed a strong support; but China entered a period of increased production, the global sugar market entered a bear market, Zheng sugar long-term bearish, but before the end of the crop season to the new crop season, the spot or deep drop conditions are not enough.
Operation strategy: Waiting for the opportunity to bounce again and short the moon.
Cotton: Slow progress in domestic acquisitions, US Department of Agriculture October report
On the international front, the sales of US cotton are still acceptable, and the price is obviously supported around 68 cents. India's domestic cotton prices have gradually weakened, and new cotton will soon be listed. Technically, there is strong support for 66-67 cents.
Domestically, the acquisition of seed cotton in Xinjiang during the National Day was slow, the purchase price in northern Xinjiang was relatively stable, and the purchase price in southern Xinjiang was relatively high. On the demand side, the new downstream orders are in the process of implementation, and “Golden September and Silver 10†are coming.
Comprehensive analysis, cotton prices at home and abroad have been adjusted back, domestic seed cotton purchases will be launched in a large scale, corporate acquisitions are relatively rational; Zheng cotton prices are expected to fluctuate.
Operation strategy: wait and see
Corn: supply pressure and policy game price or range volatility
The new season corn is listed on the market, the replacement grain is concentrated in Hong Kong, the grain supply is followed up, and the overall supply pattern of the market is diversified. The introduction of the fuel ethanol program will help improve the pattern of domestic corn aging stocks; the environmental supervision is coming to an end and the company's operating rate is recovering. The demand is turning around and boosting the price. At present, the overall growth of the new season corn in the main producing areas is normal. In October, the main harvesting areas of the new northeastern maize areas will be ushered in, focusing on the weather changes before this. The policy level focuses on the corn subsidy policy and the acquisition policy after the new season corn is listed. In the later period, we will continue to pay close attention to the changes in the auction of grain, the outbound storage, and the regional demand side.
Operation strategy: wait and see.
Corn Starch: Environmental supervision is nearing the end of the two-segment demand or turning weak
The fourth batch of central environmental protection supervision work is coming to an end, and the operating rate of some deep processing enterprises is slowly recovering. At present, the profit of starch production is maintained at a good level and the supply of starch has increased. After the two quarters, demand has turned weak, and the demand for feed and deep processing downstream enterprises has weakened. The new corn market is accompanied by an increase in the operating rate, and the supply of the starch market will be tightened. Later, the focus will be on new corn price fluctuations and downstream demand changes, focusing on the operating rate.
Operation strategy: wait and see.
Source: CITIC Futures Research Information
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