On Tuesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reappeared in the “28th†differentiation landscape, but the winner of this differentiation is the GEM. As of the end of the session, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3292.07 points, down 37.50 points, down 1.13%; Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10807.53 points, down 88.03 points, down 0.81%; small and medium board fell slightly 0.28%; ChiNext rose slightly 0.97% . The total transaction volume of the two cities totaled 461.209 billion yuan, a slight contraction from Monday.
Market participants believe that the high position of Yin Baoyang makes the Shanghai Stock Index have the possibility of a double dip, but the opportunities for individual stocks will still be brilliant, and investors should pay attention to the screening of individual stocks.
Emerging industries are highly active
In the context of the surge in US stocks overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index unexpectedly opened lower on Monday, and the opening point became the highest point of the day. After that, all the way down, unilaterally fell within half a day, lost the relevant card recovered on Monday, and tested the annual line (250 antenna) mark. In the afternoon, the bulls gathered their forces to counterattack, and finally the Shanghai index was on the line of the year, but the rebound on Monday was still swallowed up.
In contrast, the GEM is more popular. The GEM was once unilaterally higher by 1.44% when the Shanghai index was unilaterally lower. Afterwards, it fell back, but it remained in a red-hot state. In the end, it not only won the audience with a 0.97% increase, but also the transaction amount was enlarged from 71.87 billion yuan. 820.13 billion yuan is not only the only heavyweight in the A-share market, but also for four consecutive days, the first time in 10 months.
Statistics show that the ratio of stocks in the two cities is 1546:1555. There are 55 non-ST stocks in the daily limit, and 75 stocks are over 5%. The total number of stocks with a limit of 5% or more falls is only 32. In particular, it is worth mentioning that the GEM stocks are 472:176, which is the best performer among the four major markets. On the face of the market, emerging industries have become the absolute main force in the market, telecom operations, IP realisation, blockchain sector rose more than 2%; quiet years of IP realization, military aerospace, superconducting, satellite navigation sector collective force; recent performance The eye-catching Internet, artificial intelligence, information security, and security sectors continued to grow, with gains exceeding 1%.
The cyclical blue-chips weakened in a large area. The financial stocks led by coal and the financial stocks led by bank insurance were among the top losers, causing the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index to fall by 1.57%, which further dragged the Shanghai Composite Index down to 3,300 points.
Shanghai stock index may double bottom
In the previous six trading days, the A-share market was represented by the "82", "28", "Pu-up", "Pu-up", "28" and "82" patterns, and this Tuesday again. When the "eighth two" pattern emerges, what will be the next step? In this regard, the upstream financial-Chongqing Business Daily reporter interviewed two securities people to answer questions for investors.
Shen Wan Hongyuan (000166) Chongqing Branch chief investment officer He Wu said: "Unlike the previous six days, Tuesday's '82" pattern appeared in the case of the main index closing down, then the market style conversion method may be 'than Who is falling less? Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded after the volatility, and in the short term, the annual line is not enough to constitute much support. It depends on whether the 3200 platform will be broken down again by the short position. Speaking, the technical side is at a more sensitive node, and the risk is difficult to measure; but for small and medium-sized GEM, especially the GEM, the intermediate level has already been established, and the probability of falling below the previous low is very low. Some oversold low-priced GEM stocks continue The market is booming, and the bullish stocks in the policy-benefit sector have restored market confidence and blocked downsides. Therefore, investors should focus on GEM stocks, and some stocks with sufficient stocks can be actively explored."
Haitong Securities (600837) Shangqing Temple's senior investment representative Zhang Liang said: "At present, the Shanghai stock index is in the early stage of the strong pressure zone, and the rich profitable disk below makes the short-term violent shock inevitable. The GEM is blocked by the Bollinger Band's mid-rail pressure. In the short term, there are certain corrections. In addition, the official PMI data will be released on Wednesday, and the TMT Big Mac 360 will also be listed, which will have a certain impact on the market funds. Will the Fed raise interest rates in March, and will also The global stock market has an impact and indirectly affects A-shares. Although there are many short-term factors in the short-term news, the two sessions are approaching, and the market is expecting more reform measures from the management in the new period. Therefore, the market has the possibility of a double dip, but Structural opportunities are still expected, and investors must keep up with the policy to tap the leading stocks."
Northeast Securities (000686): The adjustment end signal increases the period of the plate configuration value is obvious
With the gradual stabilization of the overseas market, the A-share market has performed strongly after the holiday, and the adjustment end signal is increasing.
From the transaction level, the average daily turnover of the two cities last week remained at around 330 billion yuan. Combined with the data of the three trading days before the Spring Festival and the two trading days after the holiday, the game/stock indicator is expected to be around 0.29. Low rise trend. Influenced by the Spring Festival effect, market funds flowed out briefly before the holiday, but began to reflow after the holiday.
From the market's ups and downs structure, the new high and new low ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 sample stocks have rebounded at the bottom, and the weighted up and down diffusion index of all A shares is also in the bottom picking process. The SSE 50 Index had a large correction. Judging from the SSE 50 option data, the size of the put option position has decreased significantly, which also indicates that the previous decline of the SSE 50 Index has an oversold feature.
From a fundamental point of view, under the overall tone of steady progress, the policy's attitude toward the A-share market is still relatively obvious. At present, there are no factors that may trigger a mid-market adjustment. In addition, due to the early spring ploughing this year, the market continued to move upwards in January and then adjusted for shocks in early February. After March, the upward pressure on the market eased.
In terms of configuration, as policy expectations are strengthened, it is recommended to focus on topics such as housing leasing, military-civilian integration, and regional planning. In addition, the configuration value of the periodic section is still relatively obvious.
Founder Securities (601901): Risk appetite is expected to continue to rise and pay attention to the two major regional investment themes
The global economy has recovered at the same time, and the export, manufacturing and consumption upgrades have played a significant role in supporting the market. Overseas, the current global economic recovery trend is still continuing. From the latest Fed monetary policy report, the US economy has provided strong support for the global economic recovery. On the domestic front, in addition to exports closely related to the global economic recovery, the role of manufacturing upgrades and consumption upgrades in supporting the market has become increasingly significant.
The liquidity is relatively stable, and the impact of the rise in US bond yields on the market is weakened. On the domestic front, the bill's direct interest rate rose by 20bp, which hit a new high in the current round of interest rate. The 1-week shibor dropped slightly by 4bp, the 3-month shibor remained basically unchanged, and the 10-year bond yield dropped by 1bp, indicating that the interest rates basically remained. smooth. Overseas, the Fed’s announcement of the interest rate has released a strong signal. The probability of raising interest rates four times during the year has risen from 19.7% to 22.1%. The probability of interest rate hike in March has risen from 77.5% to 86%, and the yield of US bonds has broken through 2.9. %. From the perspective of the stock market reaction, the market first fell and then rose, and the impact of the rise in US bond yields on the market weakened.
The policy is warm and the market sentiment is further repaired. The authorization period for the reform of the stock issuance registration system was allowed to be extended to 2020, and information such as the reorganization and listing of the company after the IPO was rejected in three years was ignored by the market. In combination with the previous institutional arrangements such as major shareholder reduction and equity pledge, the overall market risk appetite is expected to continue to rise.
In terms of configuration, investors can continue to pay attention to relevant policy expectations, such as the Xiong'an New District, which involves regional development, and the Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macau and Dawan District.
Xiangcai Securities: The market maintains a volatile rebound pattern, paying attention to short-selling stocks
Last week, the market opened higher and rebounded sharply. Looking ahead this week, we believe that the A-share market will maintain a volatile rebound pattern. The reasons are as follows:
First, the peripheral market continued to rise last week, and the A-share market continued to follow the upside momentum. Secondly, from the perspective of funds, in order to influence the taxation period and the deposit of statutory deposit reserve by financial institutions, the liquidity of the banking system was maintained to be reasonable and stable, and the net market for the two days after the holiday was 580 billion yuan. In addition, from the policy point of view, a number of favorable policies have been issued recently, including the approval period for the issuance of the stock issuance registration system is allowed to be extended to 2020, and the IPO cannot be listed on the backdoor within 3 years after the IPO is denied. Finally, from the emotional point of view, the recent policy expectations are strengthened, which is beneficial to the recovery of market sentiment to a certain extent. From the perspective of margin financing and securities lending data, as of February 21, the balance of the two financings was 987.61 billion yuan, an increase of 5.81 billion yuan from February 14, indicating that investor sentiment is gradually picking up. In addition, from a technical point of view, the previous down gap has been replenished and the index has reached the annual line.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to focus on the structure, focus on performance, and pay attention to the “compensation short board†benefit section. In 2018, while maintaining steady growth, China's economy will pursue the improvement of economic quality and promote the optimization of economic structure. Therefore, the A-share market will undergo structural differentiation, and the relevant advantageous industry sectors are worth tracking.
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