We observed several indicators prove that the current interim polyester filament industry, the inventory cycle will end. (1) Since the beginning of this year, the domestic polyester chip production has experienced the first negative growth since 2009, which proves that the polyester filament industry is in the destocking stage (the energy consumption of slice spinning is relatively high, relatively lagging behind melt spinning, generally used for small capacity). However, the second-order guidance of the growth rate of polyester production is positive, indicating that the de-stocking effect is better and has passed the inflection point. (2) At present, the inventory days of domestic polyester chips are reduced from 8 days to 5 days, which is a historical average. (3) The inventory days of polyester POY , FDY and DTY of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are 6 days, 4 days and 17.5 days respectively, which is lower than the historical average.
The medium-term forecast of the textile and garment industry shows that the industry is recovering, textile production is increasing, and it is in line with the good performance of the domestic market. There are 45 textile and apparel listed companies in the downstream of chemical fiber. There are 27 growth forecasts for this year's mid-term report. There are 7 companies that continue to make profits and turn losses. The performance has dropped by 9 and there is no uncertainty. The industry has recovered. Among them, the textile sector continued its high level of prosperity in 2016. With the recovery of overseas economy in 2017, the growth of downstream orders was more certain, and the performance growth was slightly higher than expected. For example, Huafu Color Spinning announced a 30%-60% increase, Xinye Textile Preview Increase by 30%-50%. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first five months of this year, the cumulative output of domestic cloth was 20.8 billion meters, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year. The cumulative output of yarn was 16.577 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year, and the output of textiles increased. Corresponding to this is the stable performance of the domestic market. In January, March, April and May this year, the retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises in China increased by 17.8%, 3.1%, 5.5% and 4.1% respectively.
The demand for polyester in textile fabrics performed well year on year. We observe 12 kinds of textile fabrics (cotton, pure hemp, polyester, polyester, polyester, polyester, polyester, polyester, viscose , viscose, hemp, nylon) of Keqiao Textile's total prosperity index. The overall prosperity index, found that the polyester-related prosperity index has been better than the same period last year.
With the expansion of domestic PX capacity, the bargaining power and profitability of the PX- PTA -polyester industry chain will gradually shift to the more concentrated PTA-polyester industry , focusing on leading companies in the industry. (1) Tong Kun shares (601 233) currently has a production capacity of 4 million tons of polyester filament yarn, thirteen Five-Year period the company continue to increase production capacity of high-end differentiated wire construction is expected at the end of 2019 production capacity will reach 600 million tons, the market share will increase to 17%~18%, the performance elasticity is huge; (2) Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) has a filament production capacity of 1 million tons, a PTA production capacity of 6 million tons, and a PX production capacity of 1.6 million tons. At the same time, the company is developing towards upstream refining and chemical industry. With the gradual commissioning of Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Unit, the company will open the entire industrial chain of “refining-aromatic-PTA-polyester-spinning-stretchingâ€; (3) Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) has a capacity of 1.65 million tons of polyester fiber, 6.12 million tons of PTA equity, and 100,000 tons of caprolactam. At the same time, the company's 8 million tons refining and chemical integration project has become a key part of the company's upstream advancement into the refining and chemical industry.
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