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Overdraw funds, oversold MPA institutions, and once again bullish bond market
Zhou Ailin
[After March 9th, the short-end one-year national opening rate was 22BP, while the long-end 10-year national opening rate was 15BP. Once on, the term spread quickly narrowed to around 50 BP. ]
Throughout March, the bond market was shrouded in the haze of “funds shortageâ€, “rising interest rates†and “MPA examsâ€. The economic data has continued to warm up since last year, and the interbank deposit rate is quite attractive. The bond market seems to have become Nobody cares about "children." However, the object must be reversed, and the turning point may have arrived.
"Although the situation of 'expensive capital' is difficult to change in the short term, this does not hinder the market's demand for the bond market." Wu Zhaoyin, director of macro strategy of AVIC Trust, said in an exclusive interview with the first financial reporter. He boldly predicted that the 10-year bond yield this year may hit a low of 3.0%.
Even though the bond market has opportunities to enter the market, the current situation of tight balance of funds is still difficult to change. A bond trader told the First Financial reporter: "It is expected that the funds will be more relaxed from the beginning of April to the middle of the month, but there are still more than 400 billion MLFs due this month, and tax will be paid in the next ten days. ."
The economic cycle is topping the good bond market
First, changes in economic fundamentals are the main reason why some institutions are beginning to bullish bond markets.
Wu Zhaoyin told reporters that the economy will go down again in the second quarter after a few quarters of small recovery, while the PPI has a high probability of peaking in February, and then there will be a significant decline, while the CPI will remain at 1% for a long time. The lower level of the left and right, these constitute the fundamental factors of the decline in bond yields.
"The high value of short-term monetary interest rate and the decline of long-term bond yield can coexist. The two are not contradictory. The core variables that determine the monetary interest rate and bond yield are not consistent. It is only because the monetary interest rate is high in the bond investment process. By borrowing short-term money to increase leverage to get more benefits." Wu Zhaoyin told reporters.
"The surface phenomenon of this cycle is that the PPI rebounded from a level of about 6% to a positive level of nearly 8%, and the difference between the two points was 14 points. But the drop of the 14 points is not reflected in the industrial added value." Liu Haiying, chief economist at Chaoyang Yongli Research Institute, said that the reason is that the source of this round of inventory cycle is not as strong as the terminal demand, but from the supply side reform process. Disturbed.
In addition to economic judgment, the agency's demand for bond allocation remains undiminished. First of all, Li Qilin, managing director and chief macro researcher of Lianxun Securities, said that after March 9th, due to the tight funds, the short-end one-year national opening rate was 22BP, while the long-end 10-year national opening rate was lower. 15BP. On the first one, the term spread quickly narrowed to around 50 BP, and the yield curve suddenly appeared in the middle of March in the form of “Niu Pingâ€.
In addition, the same-term deposit receipts "quantity and price drop" may also benefit the bond market. Many traders told reporters that the risk of bond market in the first quarter was relatively high, and the interest rate of interbank deposits was close to 5%, which could fully meet the expected return. Therefore, the enthusiasm of the organization to allocate bonds was very low.
This situation has now reversed. According to Wind data, as of last Friday, the same period of the same year issued 32.93 billion, compared with 571.99 billion issued last week, a decline of more than 40%, which also constitutes the largest weekly cycle ratio this year. At the same time, the interest rate of the same period of various varieties began to turn around: Take the AAA-rated interbank deposit receipt as an example. According to Wind, the January-period same-currency interest rate has dropped from the previous high of 4.76% to the current 4.3%. 46BP; the June period fell from 4.63% to 4.40%.
Banks' initiative to reduce debt-side actions is not unrelated to strict MPA assessments. MPA needs banks to submit seven indicators including capital and leverage, asset and liability, liquidity, pricing behavior, asset quality, external debt risk, credit policy implementation, and a total of 16 indicators, and the off-balance sheet financial management is also newly included. After the assessment, once the standard is not met, the cost of obtaining funds from the central bank in the later period will rise sharply.
Capital fabrics continue to be tightly balanced
When it comes to the bond market, I have to raise funds. How do you look at the funds in April? Tianfeng Securities said that at the end of the quarter in March, the interest rate of funds is subject to multiple assessments, and it tends to be tight after the 20th and the end of the month (DR007 /R007 A sharp rise), the main demolition of funds - the willingness to dismantle large commercial banks has also dropped significantly, and the financial tensions of non-bank institutions are more prominent (R007 and DR007 spreads have greatly expanded).
Bank of Communications believes that the money market will continue to be tight in the second quarter, market interest rates will continue to operate at relatively high levels, and operating interest rates may rise again, but liquidity is likely to tighten sharply and interest rates continue to rise significantly. In the second half of the year, in view of the downward pressure on the economy, the interest rate of the money market will gradually be transmitted to the loan interest rate. It is expected that the operating interest rate will remain stable, and it is not ruled out that the policy may be fine-tuned at the margin.
Further, the funding situation depends on the ability of the capital borrowing body to be demolished and the willingness to demolish, mainly including: fiscal deposits, cash leakage, and foreign exchange holdings, funds and statutory deposit reserves that are more closely related to the central bank. Rate changes. Two major factors are crucial: First, whether commercial banks can supply sufficient funds, and second, changes in central bank attitudes.
“As far as April is concerned, there is a certain gap in the funds available for commercial banks. Whether the central bank puts sufficient funds to hedge it is the key and the most uncertain intention.†Tianfeng Securities expects that in terms of maturity, 4 In the first half of the month (as of the 20th), the MLF and reverse repurchase maturity was 74.15 billion yuan, and the amount of funds returned was lower than the middle of March (110 billion yuan).
At present, the attitude of the central bank to maintain a tight balance of funds has not changed, so it is only necessary to pay attention to whether the policy base of the central bank changes or not. In March, CPI is expected to be in the recovery range. Although the PPI is down, it will still be at a high level. In terms of structural factors, the goal of de-leveraging and anti-foam has not changed. In terms of external factors, US interest rates are rising, domestic policy rates are Further raise the pressure. It can be seen that the probability of the central bank changing its attitude is low.
In terms of foreign exchange, the current pressure on capital outflows is not large. If the Fed does not make further hawkish attitudes in April, the agency expects that the scale of foreign exchange losses will be around 60 billion yuan in February. If the Fed further raises interest rates, it is expected to advance. Reflected, it may be between 100 billion and 200 billion yuan.
However, it should be noted that the current Fed officials intensively commented on the contraction. If the Fed’s voluntary contract is expected to be increasingly determined in April, the rate of loss of foreign exchange may be further accelerated.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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