In the US, the US dollar index rose slightly on Friday, closing at 95.69, or 0.1%. However, with the hawkish remarks of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, the US dollar was under pressure, the US dollar index fell overall last week. To make matters worse, the US dollar index fell 4.6% in the second quarter, the largest quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2010, and has fallen 6.4% in the first half of this year. The performance of many economic weaknesses caused the dollar to continue to fall to a minimum of 95.4 US dollars, but this is not the point. The US dollar is divided into three places to observe. One is the dovish remarks made by many US official amnesties due to internal uncertainties in the United States. Second, the implementation support rate of Trump's government program reform can solve the economic failure caused by the US long-term interest rate hike. The third is to suppress the US dollar in the current favorable situation of the euro zone. Whether it can be continued. At the end of the week, the US dollar fluctuated downwards, and the trend of "Wanjin Oil" was neutral. In Europe, the London police arrested a 21-year-old girl suspected of planning a terrorist attack at Heathrow Airport. It is reported that the girl lived in the north of London. On the evening of June 29, she was arrested by the police after arriving at the airport on a plane departing from Istanbul and was taken to the police station in southern London. According to sources, law enforcement agencies have searched two addresses in northern London, indicating that the arrest was related to the Syrian incident and given that such an event has been brought under control in Europe. At the end of the week, the pound was unexpectedly strong. As the pace of economic growth in the euro zone accelerated, inflation levels rose, and anti-EU populist forces retreated, the pound’s cumulative gains in the first half of the year reached 5.4%. For the entire European market is unpredictable, affected by the continued decline of the US dollar, the British pound plunged on the line, the speed of the pound's rebound on Friday determines the next week's trend, we were mainly low-level operations at the beginning of the week. At present, the problems in the European market are all reducing the impact. It is manifested in several aspects: First, the terrorist attacks are controlled. Second, Brexit is not so cut to the EU, and a certain consensus has been reached. Third, the British doves are currently solid. Domestic economy. It is worth noting that although the UK's first quarter current account indicates that the economy is regaining momentum, British consumers have experienced the longest decline in spending power since the 1970s. Household disposable income has fallen for three consecutive quarters, with household savings rates recording a record low of 1.7%. The data shows that consumers are facing the dual pressure of rising inflation and slowing wage growth. The Bank of England expects economic growth to rise to 0.4% in the second quarter, and said it will start raising interest rates if exports and investment performance are strong in the coming months. In the short to medium term, it will continue to be positive. At the beginning of the week, the pound and the euro are mostly low. In terms of gold prices, starting from April this year, the US dollar began to fall below the long-term trend line, but it has remained above 96.50. This is the 62% Fibonacci retracement line from last May to December last year. If the dollar has been difficult to break below this position and move up, it will put tremendous pressure on gold. However, considering the recent difficult dollar trend, the impact of the dollar on the gold trend can be temporarily considered neutral. The price of gold is currently above the 50% Fibonacci support line, and the lowest drop of 1220 is also at 61.8%. If it can break through the previous resistance line of $1,265 per ounce, it will have a chance to reach the range of $1,280-1,300 per ounce. However, from the fundamental situation, the price of gold has no kinetic energy to break through. At present, after the break of $1,240, it will form an accelerated decline. Before the break, the low price of 1236.7 US dollars will not be done during the day. In terms of crude oil, the number of US oil drillings recorded a decline last week, and oil prices were boosted. Last week, the US and the two oils closed up, but the oil price fell nearly 15% in the first half of the year. At present, the excess oil and shale oil recovery have dragged down the oil price. 58%, although the current OPEC and non-OPEC countries are implementing production cuts, but the production cuts are not as good as market expectations, the effect is doubtful, and the increase in production in Libya and Nigeria and the increase in the number of oil drilling in the United States also caused oil prices to fall in June; only the latest week The data showed that the US drilling industry recorded a decline for the first time in 24 weeks, and the oil price was slightly boosted. Researcher of BSFX Boss Financial Group said: It is estimated that the decline is affected by tropical storm Cindy, but this kind of impact will not last too long. It is expected that the growth of oil drilling will resume next, so we have a short-term Better short-selling opportunities, also exposed on Friday, crude oil broke through the 45.5 mark and rose to the 46.5 mark. This kind of high probability event we grasp is vivid, so the daily line is Lianyang, the weekly line rebounds, and the monthly line is extremely weak. How do we look at crude oil: one pays attention to OPEC's total inventory and production reduction policy, and the other is attention. The increase in production inventory and the number of wells in US oil, and the third is based on the dollar's decline or geopolitical factors, causing a fault in the crude oil supply to force crude oil to continue to rise, etc., to determine the timing of crude oil entering the second half of the year. At the beginning of the week, crude oil was much lower with the daily line.
At the same time, for this week, it is the first week of July, and the beginning of the second half of the market, gold and silver will usher in the minutes of the Federal Reserve FOMC policy meeting, the minutes of the European Central Bank monetary policy meeting, June ADP employment, June non- The agricultural employment report and the severe test of the Fed’s monetary policy report. BSFX Bosi Financial Analyst believes that when the current US dollar does not act, the weak decline of gold will continue to puncture the lower support and fall back. The decline is not over. The short-term uptrend is present in the short-term uptrend of the crude oil. The factors that are forced, persistence and skepticism. The euro zone will continue to be lower at the beginning of the week and can grasp greater profits. The dollar zone will continue to fluctuate and there is still a high probability that next week, the non-agricultural data will change.
List of important speeches and risk events this week
on Tuesday:
12:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate resolutions and policy statements;
Thursday:
02:00 The Federal Reserve's FOMC announced the minutes of the June policy meeting;
19:30 The European Central Bank announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting;
22:00 Fed Governor Powell speaks at a business association;
Friday:
07:30 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher delivered a speech on government policy and the labor market;
23:00 The Federal Reserve issued a monetary policy report to Congress.
List of important data this week
on Monday:
09:45 China's June financial new manufacturing PMI final value;
15:15 Swiss annual actual retail sales rate in May;
15:50 France June manufacturing PMI final value;
15:55 Germany's manufacturing PMI final value in June;
16:00 Final value of the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in June;
16:30 UK June manufacturing PMI;
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate in May;
21:45 US June Markit manufacturing PMI final value;
22:00 US June ISM manufacturing PMI, monthly construction expenditure in May;
on Tuesday:
12:30 Australia to July 4th, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision;
17:00 Eurozone May PPI monthly rate;
on Wednesday:
09:45 China June financial services PMI;
15:50 France's service industry PMI final value in June;
15:55 Germany's service industry PMI final value in June;
16:00 Eurozone June service industry PMI final value;
16:30 UK service industry PMI in June;
17:00 Eurozone May retail sales monthly rate;
22:00 US factory order monthly rate in May;
Thursday:
04:30 API crude oil inventories for the week from the US to June 30;
15:15 Swiss CPI monthly rate in June;
19:30 Number of layoffs in the US challenger business in June;
20:15 US ADP employment in June;
20:30 US initial jobless claims, May trade account;
21:45 US June Markit service industry PMI final value;
22:00 US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI;
23:00 EIA crude oil inventories for the week from June 30 to June 30;
Friday:
13:45 Switzerland's adjusted unemployment rate in June;
14:00 German seasonally adjusted monthly industrial output rate in May;
14:45 French trade account and monthly rate of industrial output in May;
15:30 UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index monthly rate;
16:00 China's foreign exchange reserves in June; 16:30 UK monthly industrial output rate, manufacturing output monthly rate, seasonally adjusted commodity trade account;
20:30 Unemployment rate in the United States in June and seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment;
22:30 EIA natural gas inventory for the week from the US to June 30;
on Saturday:
01:00 The total number of oil wells in the US during the week.
[US crude oil]
At the beginning of the week, crude oil continued to rebound with the daily low, and did not fall below the $45.5 defensive line to form a second buying point. The short-term can continue to do more.
ã€gold】
In the day before the breakthrough, the low price of 1236.7 US dollars is not much. At present, the gold price is in the process of repeated test support, the market is extremely weak, the Asian market is down, the European market continues, and the US market acceleration is the main performance of the extremely weak market. The top does not break through the 1245 defensive line, which can keep the empty order.
[US/Swiss]
The US dollar is weak in the short to medium term. Before the shocking box exits, it can continue to sell high and low. Currently, the defensive line is set at 0.95974. If the top of the box does not break, you can do more peace of mind.
[Europe/US]
At the beginning of the week, the euro was long, and 1.13927 was a four-hour test low. In the case of the European and American stocks, the second upside rise point. The probability of the euro going up and down is rising. The entry point is at 1.13954-1.13980, and the target is 1.44440.
[Pound / US]
The pound is stronger than the euro. It will not be so conservative when it starts to do more at the beginning of the week. It will form a second purchase point if it does not fall below 1.29747.
[US/Japan]
The US and Japan will enter the volatility adjustment of the market ahead of the weak dollar, and currently short the defensive line at the $111.2 mark.
Interval 111.2-109.8. High throw low suction.
The above is only a personal opinion, it is recommended to operate in a light warehouse, for reference only. Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market. BSFX Boss Financial will not be liable for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may result from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
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