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EUR
Fundamental analysis:
On Thursday (February 23), the Asian market was trading early in the morning, the euro / dollar is currently trading near 1.0550. The original financial market believed that the minutes of the Fed meeting was the only heavy event on Wednesday (February 22), but the result was robbed by the French election news. French mid-term presidential candidate Bay Lake proposed an alliance with independent candidate Mark Long. At the same time, two former assistants of Le Pen, the leader of the far-right party "National Front", were detained by the police. Under the influence of these news, the euro trended. roller coaster". In addition to the French election news, the minutes of the Federal Reserve (FED) meeting also provided momentum for the euro rebound. According to the minutes of the last Monetary Policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve, several Fed policymakers said that if employment and inflation data are in line with expectations, it may be appropriate to “really†to raise interest rates again. At the meeting, the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Members with voting rights generally believe that the urgency of raising interest rates is not great. Many members pointed out that the risk of rising inflationary pressures is not high. If inflationary pressures occur, the Fed has “sufficient time†to respond. There are still nine weeks left in the first round of the French election. The high degree of uncertainty associated with this means that tensions will continue, which will put the euro under pressure.
Today's operational strategy:
From the trend of 4H, the overall situation is still weak, as long as the upper pressure line is not broken, the market outlook needs to be bearish, so the day can continue to short operation, the day touched 1.0590 short, stop loss 1.0620, the lower target is 1.0490.
International Gold/Dollar:
Fundamental analysis:
On Thursday (February 23), the Asian market in early trading, international spot gold consolidation around 1237 US dollars / ounce, international spot gold Wednesday (February 22) after the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, short-term jump, a straight rise, gold price The rebound rebounded, and the US market hit a high of $1240.34 per ounce. The US dollar index showed a short-term diving, which turned from a rise to a decline. Analysts said that the gold market faces two possibilities. On the one hand, if the FOMC raises interest rates in March, the market has not yet priced, and the price of gold has fallen below or below $1,200 per ounce. The Fed’s interest rate hike this year is already a high probability event. Goldman Sachs expects to raise interest rates three times in 2017, and the probability of a rate hike in June is 80%. The long-term real interest rate in the US has also risen slightly, putting pressure on gold. On the other hand, if Trump has more remarks on Twitter or an executive order, more investment funds will enter the gold. The key factor supporting gold at present is still uncertainty, which has reached an unprecedented high, in addition to inflation. So geopolitics and potential inflation have become major events driving the price of gold. From a technical point of view, gold is currently experiencing strong resistance at $1,245 per ounce. The small double-top pattern is looming. If it is not possible to break through, it is more likely to fall further. Investors should be cautious.
Today's operational strategy:
From the 4H chart, gold formed a range consolidation at the high level. Yesterday, it was down by the previous high resistance. Intraday radical investors could touch 1238 short, stop loss 1244, and the lower target 1228.
GBP/USD:
Fundamental analysis:
On Wednesday (February 22nd), the Asian market was in early trading, with GBP/USD at around 1.2500. The pound is under pressure as a result of the Brexit and the economic data from the country. The British government has made no significant progress in launching the Brexit negotiations next month. The pound has been limited to the $0.03 range for a month. The pound fell by about 20% against the dollar in a little over a year. Some British data have sent negative signals. Official data released on Tuesday showed that the UK consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.8% in January from the same period last year due to the impact of the pound and the global oil price increase. The highest increase since. It is expected that the CPI increase will further increase to around 3% later this year, eroding consumers' spending power, and consumer spending is the driving force behind the UK's economic resilience since the Brexit referendum. Obviously, the market will take a breather before the next round of Brexit news. Once the Brexit negotiations start normally, the complexity of the whole situation will become more apparent. At the same time, further evidence of a substantial decline in real wages before the end of the year will emerge. The best performance of the pound is that it is a big shock.
Today's operational strategy:
From the trend of the 4-hour line, the exchange rate is running in the triangle shock zone. The stable investors can wait for the breakthrough to be placed in the follow-up, and wait and see before the breakthrough.
USD/JPY:
Fundamental analysis:
Thursday (February 23) Asian market in early trading, now trading at 113.30 level. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kuroda said on Wednesday (February 22) that although the Bank of Japan may further relax its policy if necessary, it is expected that the central bank will further cut negative interest rates because consumer prices are expected to rise. low. On the same day, Kuroda said that the Japanese economy is accelerating, prices will rise steadily, and inflation may reach 2% in FY18. Oil prices are unlikely to drag inflation up. He reiterated that if necessary More easing measures may be taken to achieve the 2% price target.
He also pointed out that the Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan went smoothly and is unlikely to encounter any obstacles. At the same time, he does not believe that the Bank of Japan will be more difficult to control the yield curve. Regarding the impact of the US entering the interest rate hike cycle, Kuroda said that “the US interest rate hike does not automatically put pressure on Japanese bond yields. I don’t think the Bank of Japan needs to raise interest rate targets only because of the rise in global bond yields.†In addition, Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan does not predict the exchange rate, but said that the exchange rate will affect the economy and prices. According to a Reuters survey, analysts' views on the Bank of Japan's next policy action are broadly different. It is expected that Japan will adopt more monetary stimulus analysts to reduce, suggesting that the market's expectations for the central bank's loose cycle may have reached a turning point.
Today's operational strategy:
From the trend of the daily chart, the overall trend of the big pattern remains unchanged. During the day, it hits 113.30 and stops at 113.00. The upper target sees 114.30.
Crude oil / US dollar:
Fundamental analysis:
On Thursday (February 23), at the beginning of the Asian market, oil prices rebounded slightly from overnight lows. US oil traded at around US$54.02/barrel, an increase of about 0.80%; oil oil traded around US$56.26/barrel, an increase of about 0.20%. The newly released US API crude oil and refined oil inventories both recorded a decrease, and the optimism of the OPEC production reduction supervision and review meeting is the kinetic energy of the oil price. Although the Fed’s minutes of the “Front Dove†released on Thursday morning caused the US dollar to temporarily fall, overall, the dollar’s ​​high level in several weeks still put pressure on oil prices. Market analysts believe that the current oil market wait-and-see mood is strong, as investors wait for data to confirm whether the recent oil price increase is effective. On Wednesday (February 22), US WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.36% to $53.59 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed down 1.45% at $55.84 per barrel. As the US dollar index remained volatile around several-week highs and the market worried that US crude oil inventories released this week were bearish, oil prices fell under pressure. The analysis pointed out that OPEC has been unable to provide action, but the threat from the United States will become larger and larger, and the pessimistic expectation of US stocks is the main reason for the fall in oil prices on Wednesday.
Today's operational strategy:
From the 4-hour trend, short-term oil prices are above the trend line, and steady investors hit 53.80 to stop, with a stop loss of 53.30 and the upper target of 54.80.
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